We’ve all been tempted: you’re browsing online, spot the perfect item at a price that seems almost suspiciously low, and wonder: could this be real? You might hit “buy” anyway, hoping for a lucky break, but that nagging doubt is more than just paranoia. It’s a glimpse into a sprawling, hidden economy that most of us rarely think about. Behind every too-good-to-be-true deal is a vast, ever-changing network trafficking in fake goods. This isn’t just about knock-off sneakers or imitation handbags. The counterfeit trade is a global criminal operation that siphons billions from legitimate businesses, dodges taxes, and most worrying of all puts people’s health and safety at risk. A fresh 2025 report with the title Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025 (GLOBAL TRENDS AND ENFORCEMENT CHALLENGES) from the OECD and the EU Intellectual Property Office shines a light on this shadowy world (you can download the full report here). Drawing on the latest customs data, it reveals a threat that’s more sophisticated and elusive than ever. Here are five of the most eye-opening findings.

1. The Numbers Are Jaw-Dropping: A $467 Billion Black Market
It’s hard to wrap your head around just how big the counterfeit trade has become. According to the report, fake goods accounted for about $467 billion in global trade in 2021, up from $464 billion in 2019. That’s roughly 2.3% of all imports worldwide, a figure on par with the GDP of some entire countries. The European Union feels the sting even more: in 2021, counterfeit products made up 4.7% of all EU imports, valued at $117 billion. But the damage isn’t just financial. Counterfeits undermine honest businesses, drain government coffers, and, in many cases, put lives at risk.

2. It’s Not Just Designer Bags, It’s Dangerous Fakes
When most people think of counterfeiting, they picture fake watches or luxury purses. But the reality is far more alarming. Counterfeiters are quick to spot trends and churn out fakes of whatever’s in demand, from medicines and cosmetics to food and children’s toys. One particularly disturbing trend is the surge in fake car parts, especially airbags. Authorities have seized large numbers of counterfeit airbags, sometimes called “zombies,” that often fail to deploy in a crash. These aren’t just cheap imitations; they’re potentially deadly. What’s worse, many of these parts are sold online and end up in the hands of unsuspecting mechanics, meaning drivers may have no idea they’re at risk.

3. Counterfeiters Are Outsmarting the System
As law enforcement gets better at spotting fakes, criminals are getting more creative. One new tactic is “localization.” Instead of shipping finished counterfeit goods, traffickers now send unassembled parts, raw materials, and even fake packaging separately. These components are then put together near or inside the destination country, often in free trade zones where oversight is lax. This approach makes it much harder for customs officials to spot fakes, since unbranded parts don’t raise red flags. The report notes that about 20% of all seizures now involve packaging or authentication materials, showing just how widespread this strategy has become.

4. E-Commerce Has Become the Counterfeiter’s Playground
The explosion of online shopping has made life much easier for counterfeiters. Postal services are now the main route for shipping fake goods, accounting for 58% of all seizures by number. But here’s the twist: while mail dominates in quantity, it only makes up 18% of the total value of seized goods, the same as sea freight, which involves far fewer shipments. Most of these intercepted packages are small, fewer than ten items per parcel, making them harder to detect and often exempt from customs duties. This “high volume, low value” model overwhelms enforcement agencies. Meanwhile, the share of fake goods moving by road has jumped dramatically, while sea shipments have dropped, showing how quickly traffickers adapt to enforcement efforts.

5. Key Source Countries, Yet a Widening Global Web
According to the report, China remains the biggest source of counterfeit goods. This comes as no surprise as China is the world's leading manufacturing nation, accounting for a significant portion of global manufacturing output. The report’s analysis highlights other key players, including Türkiye, Lebanon, and Syria. Criminal groups are constantly shifting their routes to exploit weak spots in enforcement, with new smuggling corridors popping up along major rivers and trade routes.

Conclusion: The Fight Against Fakes Is Getting Tougher
The latest findings make one thing clear: the counterfeit trade isn’t just a nuisance, it’s a fast-evolving, tech-savvy threat that puts economies and lives at risk. With criminals getting smarter and more localized, and with e-commerce fueling the spread of dangerous fakes, tackling this problem will require smarter, more coordinated action across borders. As the lines blur between legitimate and illicit supply chains, the question remains: who’s responsible for keeping consumers safe, and what can each of us do to help stem the tide of fakes?

AGIP has taken a leading role in tackling counterfeit goods across a dynamic and increasingly important region. With offices stretching from China to Morocco, our teams work closely with clients to help them navigate and combat the ever-evolving challenges posed by fake products. Feel free to contact our experts at brand.protection@agip.com if you have any questions or enquiries in this respect. 

Source: https://www.agip.com/News/en/articles/23494